America's time, too, shall pass

A thought

Every young nation's period of dominance runs out. Deny this as the US might, sincere as US beliefs are regarding History's coming to them rather than their own needing to serve History. Well, Marxists thought so, too. Everyone ends up in the dustbin of history. It's what you make of your time on top that counts.

In the March 2003 Atlantic magazine is an article (not yet on their web site) that mentions a recent Bill Clinton speech:

America's current world dominance is "clearly a fleeting moment" that will end when China and India fulfill their ambitions and other powers rise. Therefore the United States should use the "magic moment" to build institutions it can rely on when the moment passes.

This seems to me a statement of uncommonly good sense. When you are dealt a string of good luck, arrange things with the world to your long-term advantage. Consider who has succeeded and failed at this. The Dutch and English pushed their momentary advantages in the useful directions, and their cultures thrive to this day. They do differ: the English influence on the worlds' acceptance of the rule of law is obvious; the Dutch boosting of long-distance trade and cultural tolerance is less obvious but has never been extinguished. The Spanish at the same time did not arrange things to their advantage, tried to live off the gold, and when it ran out--poof. Before and after the Revolution, the French did it right, and to this day they exert global influence very many times their proportion of population and wealth. In 1900 the Germans had similar advantages, but they spent the first half of the 20th century frittering it away and worse, and they are still viewed with suspicion and wracked with guilt.

The US generally believes that their present youth and strength will keep them always first in the world (and that Europe's being old must just mean that something is wrong with them). This is both as touching and as ridiculous as the teenager's conviction that he will remain forever young and that people grow old and die only because they somehow didn't know any better. But if this teenager denies the inevitable truth as he grows into middle-age, as the US is doing, and if he fails to prepare for his years after youth, he'll have little to live on later. The failure will be doubly hard, since in addition from his powerlessness, the failure will be his own fault. He frittered away his youth even as his elders told him to shape up. He was sure he'd be young and strong forever.